Introduction

El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

• El Niño is now underway in the Tropical Pacific.
• All oceanic and atmospheric indices have crossed the conventional El Niño thresholds.

• El Niño is very likely (90% chance) to continue in June – August 2015.

  The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ)

• The SPCZ is expected to be positioned north of climatology in the western Pacific.

  Multi-model Ensemble Tool for Pacific Island (METPI) rainfall and sea surface temperature forecasts

• Below normal rainfall is forecast for Fiji, Tonga, Vanuatu and Papua New Guinea. Normal or below normal rainfall is forecast for the southern Cook Islands, Samoa, the Society Islands, the northern Cook Islands, the Marquesas, Niue, the Solomon Islands, Tokelau, the Tuamotu archipelago, Wallis & Futuna and New Caledonia.
• Above normal rainfall is forecast for western Kiribati, eastern Kiribati and Tuvalu. Normal or above normal rainfall is forecast for Pitcairn Island.
• Above normal SSTs are forecast for eastern and western Kiribati. Normal or above normal SSTs are forecast for the Marquesas, the northern Cook Islands, Tokelau and Tuvalu.