Introduction to Island Climate Update 130 - July 2011

El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

  • La Niña in the equatorial Pacific region has ended, and conditions arein the neutral range. Many dynamical and statistical climate models suggest ENSO neutral conditions will exist during austral winter and into spring.

Summary of tropical cyclone activity for 2010-11season

  • Nine tropical cyclones (TCs) occurred in the SW Pacific region thisseason, with an estimated cost of damages exceeding $3.5 Billion USD.

Multi-model Ensemble Tool for Pacific Island (METPI) rainfall and sea surface temperature forecasts

  • Below normal rainfall is forecast for Tokelau, while near normal orbelow normal rainfall is expected for the Northern Cook Islands, Tuvalu and Pitcairn Island.
  • The South Pacific Convergence Zone is expected to return to aposition close to normal in the coming three months. Above normal rainfall is expected for Tonga, Papua New Guinea, Western Kiribati and Niue.
  • Below normal sea surface temperatures are forecast for the NorthernCook Islands.