Introduction to Island Climate Update 128 - May 2011

El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

  • La Niña in the equatorial Pacific region continues to weaken. Many dynamical and statistical climate models project deterioration of the event in late autumn. ENSO neutral conditions are expected during austral winter.

Update of tropical cyclone forecast for 2010-11 season

  • Nine tropical cyclones (TCs) have occurred in the SW Pacific region this season. This concludes the activity within confines of the normal forecast window (November - April), however some TC activity might be possible during May. All islands should remain alert and prepared.

Multi-model Ensemble Tool for Pacific Island (METPI) rainfall and sea surface temperature forecasts

  • Below normal rainfall is forecast for the Northern Cook Islands and Tuvalu.
  • The South Pacific Convergence Zone is expected to return to a position close to normal in the coming three months. Above normal rainfall is expected for Niue, Fiji, Tonga, and the Austral Islands.
  • Below normal sea surface temperatures are forecast for the Marquesas, the Tuamotu Archipelago, Tokelau, Tuvalu and the Northern Cook Islands, while the Austral Islands and Tonga are expected to have above normal SSTs.


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