The ensemble of global
climate models for rainfall that are used in METPI show an area of higher than
normal rainfall associated with the SPCZ position. The green line indicates the
average SPCZ position for the forecast period based on the average of eight
climate models. The white vertical bars and ‘whiskers’ indicate the one and two
standard deviations between the model projections of the SPCZ position
every five degrees of longitude. The
purple shading is proportional to the probability of intense convection
developing within the SPCZ.