The ensemble of globalclimate models for rainfall that are used in METPI show an area of higher thannormal rainfall associated with the SPCZ position. The green line indicates theaverage SPCZ position for the forecast period based on the average of eightclimate models. The white vertical bars and ‘whiskers’ indicate the one and twostandard deviations between the model projections of the SPCZ positionevery five degrees of longitude. Thepurple shading is proportional to the probability of intense convectiondeveloping within the SPCZ.