28 February 2007
Forecast validation
Forecast period: February to April 2003
Enhanced convection over Western and Eastern Kiribati was expected to persist, extending west to include the Solomon Islands. Above average or average rainfall was also expected from Tuvalu across to the Society Islands of central French Polynesia. Below average rainfall was predicted for New Caledonia, the Marquesas Islands and Pitcairn Island. Average or below average rainfall was expected in many areas from Vanuatu east to the Austral Islands, including Fiji and Tonga. Near average rainfall was projected elsewhere.
The overall rainfall anomaly pattern was similar to that expected. However, the region of above average rainfall did not extend as far west to include the Solomon Islands, where convection was suppressed.