Forecast validation
Forecast period: January to March 2003
The El Niño related region of enhanced convection over Western and Eastern Kiribati was expected to persist. Above average or average rainfall was also expected in Tuvalu, and across central French Polynesia to Pitcairn Island. A tendency towards below average rainfall was expected for a broad region from New Caledonia east to Niue, including Vanuatu, Fiji and Tonga, and also about the Marquesas Islands of northern French Polynesia. Near average rainfall was projected elsewhere.
The overall rainfall anomaly pattern agreed well with what was expected. However, the region of above average rainfall did not extend as far east to include Eastern Kiribati. Niue and Tonga had average rather than below average rainfall, and the average or below average region extended further north to include Wallis and Futuna Islands and Samoa.