28 February 2007
Forecast validation
Forecast period: November 2002 to January 2003
The El Niño related region of enhanced convection over Western and Eastern Kiribati was expected to persist, resulting in continued above average rainfall there, and above average or average rainfall in Wallis and Futuna, Tuvalu, and Tokelau. A tendency towards below average rainfall was expected from Papua-New Guinea east-southeast to the Austral Islands, including New Caledonia, Fiji, Vanuatu, Tonga, Niue, and the Southern Cook Islands. Near average rainfall was projected elsewhere.
The overall rainfall anomaly pattern was similar to what was expected. However, the region of above average rainfall was larger than expected, extending south from Tuvalu and Tokelau to include Wallis and Futuna and Samoa.