Forecast validation
Forecast period: October to December 2002
The El Niño related region of enhanced convection over Western and Eastern Kiribati was expected to persist, resulting in continued above average rainfall and above average or average rainfall in Tuvalu, Tokelau and the Marquesas Island. A tendency towards below average rainfall was expected from Papua New Guinea to the Society Islands, including New Caledonia, Vanuatu, Fiji, Tonga, Niue and the Southern Cook Islands. Near average rainfall was projected elsewhere.
The overall rainfall anomaly pattern was very similar to the forecast pattern. The only differences were the region of above average rainfall, which extended southeast to Pitcairn, and the average or below average rainfall region, which extended north to include the Northern Cook Islands. The overall 'hit rate' for the October to December 2002 rainfall outlook was 70%, the 3rd highest score of the 26 outlooks so far.