26 September 2011
El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
- ENSO conditions are in the neutral range in the Equatorial PacificOcean. Many dynamical and statistical climate models suggest ENSO neutral conditions will exist during spring, with a possibility of La Niña resurgence or neutral conditions during summer.
Summary of tropical cyclone activity for 2010 -11 season
- Nine tropical cyclones (TCs) occurred in the SW Pacific region thisseason, with an estimated cost of damages exceeding $3.5 Billion USD.
Multi-model Ensemble Tool for Pacific Island (METPI) rainfall and sea surface temperature forecasts
- Below normal rainfall is forecast for Tuvalu, Tokelau, the Tuamotuarchipelago, Samoa, and the Northern Cook Islands in the three months ahead.
- Above normal rainfall is expected for Papua New Guinea, Vanuatu,Fiji, Tonga and Niue.
- Below normal sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are forecast for theMarquesas, while above normal SSTs are expected for Niue and Tonga.
