El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

  • ENSO conditions are in the neutral range in the Equatorial PacificOcean. Many dynamical and statistical climate models suggest ENSO
  • neutral conditions will exist during spring, with a possibility of La Niña resurgence or neutral conditions during summer.

Summary of tropical cyclone activity for 2010 -11 season

  • Nine tropical cyclones (TCs) occurred in the SW Pacific region thisseason, with an estimated cost of damages exceeding $3.5 Billion
  • USD.

Multi-model Ensemble Tool for Pacific Island (METPI) rainfall and sea surface temperature forecasts

  • Below normal rainfall is forecast for Tuvalu, Tokelau, the Tuamotuarchipelago, Samoa, and the Northern Cook Islands in the three
  • months ahead.
  • Above normal rainfall is expected for Papua New Guinea, Vanuatu,Fiji, Tonga and Niue.
  • Below normal sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are forecast for theMarquesas, while above normal SSTs are expected for Niue and
  • Tonga.