Introduction to Island Climate Update 129 - June 2011

El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

  • La Niña in the equatorial Pacific region is all but gone, and conditions are close to neutral. Many dynamical and statistical climate models suggest ENSO neutral conditions will exist during austral winter.

Summary of tropical cyclone activity for 2010-11 season

  • Nine tropical cyclones (TCs) occurred in the SW Pacific region this season, with an estimated cost of damages exceeding $3.5 Billion USD.

Multi-model Ensemble Tool for Pacific Island (METPI)rainfall and sea surface temperature forecasts

  • Below normal rainfall is forecast for the Northern Cook Islands, Tuamotu and Tuvalu.
  • The South Pacific Convergence Zone is expected to return to a position close to normal in the coming three months. Above normal rainfall is expected for Tonga and Vanuatu.
  • Below normal sea surface temperatures are forecast for the Marquesas and the Northern Cook Islands, while the Austral Islands are expected to have above normal SSTs.

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