Table 2: Analog seasons and intensity of tropical cyclones and storms that occurred in the Southwest Pacific. Analog guidance summary:
8-12 named tropical cyclones are expected for the 2013-14 season for the Southwest Pacific basin (135° E – 120° W), with a mean of 10 implied by the selected analogs. The historic average is just over 10 named cyclones per season for the basin.
Potentially, four cyclones may reach category 3 or 4 status. The long term tropical cyclone climatology (last 40 years) suggests the occurrence of a Category 5 system is very low.
In most of the analog seasons, at least one (if not more than one) ex-tropical cyclone came within 550 km of New Zealand during ENSO-neutral seasons. Some of these storms even made landfall. There is a normal likelihood of an interaction for New Zealand (at least one storm coming within 550km of the country) for the 2013-14 season. The probability of a cyclone tracking to the east of Auckland during ENSO-neutral conditions is twice as likely as those tracking to the west of Auckland city.