28 February 2007
Forecast validation
Forecast period: November 2003 to january 2004
Average or above average rainfall was expected in Papua New Guinea, the Solomon Islands, Samoa, and central French Polynesia. Below average rainfall was forecast for Eastern Kiribati and the Marquesas Islands, and average or below average rainfall from Vanuatu to Niue, including Fiji and Tonga.
Rainfall was lower than expected in Papua New Guinea, New Caledonia, and the Society Islands and higher than expected in Pitcairn Island and the Marquesas Islands, and as forecast elsewhere. The hit overall ‘hit rate’ for the November to January rainfall outlook was very high, being about 75%.