Retrospective: April-June 2016 Outlook

For April – June 2016, above normal pressure was forecast to the north of New Zealand. This circulation pattern was likely to be accompanied by weak anomalous westerly wind flow. Actual pressures were higher than normal to the north-east of the country while pressure was lower than normal over the South Island and over the Tasman. This pressure set-up produced more north-westerlies than normal.

Predicted air temperature: April - June 2016 temperatures were most likely to be above average for all regions of New Zealand.

Outcome: Actual seasonal temperatures were indeed higher than normal for the entire country. Several regions including Waikato, Manawatu-Whanganui, Wellington, Canterbury, Otago and Southland recorded seasonal mean temperatures in excess of 1.5°C above normal

Predicted rainfall: April – June 2016 rainfall was equally likely to be in the below normal or near normal range in all regions of the North Island and the east of the South Island. Near normal rainfall was most likely in the north of the South Island. In the west of the South Island, seasonal rainfall totals were most likely to be above normal.

Outcome: Actual rainfall was below normal in the regions of Gisborne, Hawke’s Bay, the Wairarapa and northern Canterbury. Rainfall was above normal in Nelson, coastal Tasman, the West Coast as well as parts of Southland, Manawatu-Whanganui. Rainfall was near normal elsewhere.

Weather station. [NIWA]