15 December 2008
An overview of the present climate in the tropical South Pacific Islands, with an outlook for the coming months, to assist in dissemination of climate information in the Pacific region.
Number 99 – December 2008
November’s climate
- The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) was contracted towards Papua New Guinea and was displaced southwest of its normal position.
- Very suppressed convection near Western Kiribati and northern Vanuatu, and south of the Equator from Nauru southeast to the Society Islands.
- Above normal rainfall for many areas in the South Pacific, including a record high in Tonga.
El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), seasonal rainfall, and sea surface temperature forecasts
- Neutral ENSO conditions exist in the tropical Pacific Ocean, but La Niña-like conditions exist in the atmosphere. Many climate models project neutral ENSO conditions persisting into early 2009.
- Below average rainfall is forecast for Western Kiribati, the Marquesas, the Society Islands, Tuvalu, Tokelau, Wallis & Futuna, Samoa, the Northern Cook Islands, and the Tuamotu archipelago.
- Above normal rainfall is expected for Papua New Guinea, New Caledonia, Vanuatu, and Tonga for the coming three months.
- Normal to above normal SSTs are forecast for the southwestern half of the southwest Pacific region. Normal to below normal SSTs are forecast for the northeast half of the southwest Pacific, except for the Society Islands which are projected to have near normal SSTs.
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