Three-month outlook

Tropical rainfall outlook: June to August 2007
  Rainfall outlook map for June to August 2007.

Tropical rainfall outlook: June to August 2007

  Rainfall outlook map for June to August 2007. (Click for enlargement)

Enhanced convection is expected over the Solomon Islands, Wallis and Futuna, Samoa, the Northern Cook Islands, and Society Islands, where rainfall is expected to be above average.

A large region of near or above average rainfall is expected from Papua New Guinea southeastwards to the Tuamotu Islands including Vanuatu, Tokelau, Tonga, Niue, and the Southern Cook Islands.

Suppressed convection is likely over Eastern Kiribati and Tuvalu where rainfall is expected to be below average. Near or below average rainfall is likely over Western Kiribati.

Rainfall is expected to be near average over rest of the countries in the region.

The forecast model skill is generally moderate for this time of the year.

Island group Rainfall outlook Outlook confidence
Solomon Islands 30:30:40 (Above) Moderate
Wallis and Futuna 25:30:45 (Above) Moderate
Samoa 20:35:45 (Above) Moderate
Northern Cook Islands 20:35:45 (Above) Moderate
Society Islands 20:35:45 (Above) Moderate
Papua New Guinea 20:40:40 (Near or above) Moderate
Vanuatu 20:40:40 (Near or above) Moderate
Tokelau 20:40:40 (Near or above) Moderate
Tonga 20:40:40 (Near or above) Moderate
Niue 20:40:40 (Near or above) Moderate
Southern Cook Islands 20:40:40 (Near or above) Moderate
Tuamotu Islands 20:40:40 (Near or above) Moderate
New Caledonia 30:40:30 (Near average) Low – moderate
Fiji 25:40:35 (Near average) Moderate
Marquesas Islands 35:45:20 (Near average) Moderate
Austral Islands 25:45:30 (Near average) Moderate
Pitcairn Island 25:45:30 (Near average) Moderate
Western Kiribati 40:40:20 (Near or below) Moderate
Eastern Kiribati 45:35:20 (Below) Moderate
Tuvalu 45:35:20 (Below) Moderate

NOTE: Rainfall estimates for Pacific Islands for the next three months are given in the table. The tercile probabilities (e.g., 20:30:50) are derived from the interpretation of several global climate models. They correspond to the odds of the observed rainfall being in the lowest (driest) one third of the rainfall distribution, the middle one third, or the highest (wettest) one third of the distribution. On the long-term average, rainfall is equally likely (33% chance) in any tercile.