Three-month outlook

Tropical rainfall outlook: April to June 2007
  Rainfall outlook map for April to June 2007.

Tropical rainfall outlook: April to June 2007

  Rainfall outlook map for April to June 2007. (Click for enlargement)

Enhanced convection is expected over Tuamotu Islands, where rainfall is forecast to be above average.

Another large region of convection is expected from the Solomon Islands southeastwards to Pitcairn Island including Vanuatu, Wallis and Futuna, Tokelau, Samoa, the Northern and Southern Cook Islands, and the French Polynesia where rainfall is likely to be near or above average.

Suppressed convection is expected over Eastern Kiribati with below average rainfall, while near or below average rainfall is forecast for Western Kiribati.

The rainfall forecast model skills are low to moderate for this time of the year.

Island group Rainfall outlook Outlook confidence
Tuamotu Islands 20:35:45 (Above average) Moderate
Solomon Islands 20:40:40 (Above average) Moderate
Vanuatu 20:40:40 (Above average) Moderate
Wallis and Futuna 20:40:40 (Above average) Moderate
Tokelau 20:40:40 (Above average) Moderate
Samoa 20:40:40 (Above average) Low – moderate
Northern Cook Islands 20:40:40 (Above average) Moderate
Southern Cook Islands 20:40:40 (Above average) Moderate
Society Islands 20:40:40 (Near or above average) Moderate
Austral Islands 20:40:40 (Above average) Moderate
Marquesas Islands 20:40:40 (Above average) Moderate
Pitcairn Island 20:40:40 (Above average) Moderate
Papua New Guinea 25:45:30 (Near average) Moderate
New Caledonia 30:40:30 (Near average) Moderate
Tuvalu 30:40:30 (Near average) Moderate
Fiji 30:40:30 (Near average) Low – moderate
Tonga 30:45:25 (Near average) Low – moderate
Niue 30:45:25 (Near average) Low – moderate
Western Kiribati 40:40:20 (Near or above average) Moderate
Eastern Kiribati 50:30:20 (Below average) Moderate

NOTE: Rainfall estimates for Pacific Islands for the next three months are given in the table. The tercile probabilities (e.g., 20:30:50) are derived from the interpretation of several global climate models. They correspond to the odds of the observed rainfall being in the lowest (driest) one third of the rainfall distribution, the middle one third, or the highest (wettest) one third of the distribution. On the long-term average, rainfall is equally likely (33% chance) in any tercile.