Tropical rainfall outlook: April to June 2007
Rainfall outlook map for April to June 2007. (Click for enlargement)
Enhanced convection is expected over Tuamotu Islands, where rainfall is forecast to be above average.
Another large region of convection is expected from the Solomon Islands southeastwards to Pitcairn Island including Vanuatu, Wallis and Futuna, Tokelau, Samoa, the Northern and Southern Cook Islands, and the French Polynesia where rainfall is likely to be near or above average.
Suppressed convection is expected over Eastern Kiribati with below average rainfall, while near or below average rainfall is forecast for Western Kiribati.
The rainfall forecast model skills are low to moderate for this time of the year.
| Island group | Rainfall outlook | Outlook confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Tuamotu Islands | 20:35:45 (Above average) | Moderate |
| Solomon Islands | 20:40:40 (Above average) | Moderate |
| Vanuatu | 20:40:40 (Above average) | Moderate |
| Wallis and Futuna | 20:40:40 (Above average) | Moderate |
| Tokelau | 20:40:40 (Above average) | Moderate |
| Samoa | 20:40:40 (Above average) | Low – moderate |
| Northern Cook Islands | 20:40:40 (Above average) | Moderate |
| Southern Cook Islands | 20:40:40 (Above average) | Moderate |
| Society Islands | 20:40:40 (Near or above average) | Moderate |
| Austral Islands | 20:40:40 (Above average) | Moderate |
| Marquesas Islands | 20:40:40 (Above average) | Moderate |
| Pitcairn Island | 20:40:40 (Above average) | Moderate |
| Papua New Guinea | 25:45:30 (Near average) | Moderate |
| New Caledonia | 30:40:30 (Near average) | Moderate |
| Tuvalu | 30:40:30 (Near average) | Moderate |
| Fiji | 30:40:30 (Near average) | Low – moderate |
| Tonga | 30:45:25 (Near average) | Low – moderate |
| Niue | 30:45:25 (Near average) | Low – moderate |
| Western Kiribati | 40:40:20 (Near or above average) | Moderate |
| Eastern Kiribati | 50:30:20 (Below average) | Moderate |
NOTE: Rainfall estimates for Pacific Islands for the next three months are given in the table. The tercile probabilities (e.g., 20:30:50) are derived from the interpretation of several global climate models. They correspond to the odds of the observed rainfall being in the lowest (driest) one third of the rainfall distribution, the middle one third, or the highest (wettest) one third of the distribution. On the long-term average, rainfall is equally likely (33% chance) in any tercile.