An overview of the present climate in the tropical South Pacific Islands, with an outlook for the coming months, to assist in dissemination of climate information in the Pacific region.
Number 45 – 4 June 2004
May’s climate: South Pacific Convergence Zone inactive about and west of the Date Line. Suppressed convection and below average rainfall in many areas. Well above average rainfall in northern French Polynesia. An unusually ‘quiet’ tropical cyclone seasons.
ENSO and sea surface temperatures (SST): The May Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) was +1.3. Neutral El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) prevail till at least the southern hemisphere spring 2004.
Forecast validation: How well are we doing with our predictions?
Three-month outlook: Enhanced convection in the equatorial west Pacific, and central and southern French Polynesia and the Southern Cook Islands. Average or below average rainfall over the countries near the Date Line, including Vanuatu, Tuvalu, Tokelau, Fiji and Eastern Kiribati.
Feature article: Southwest Pacific Tropical Cyclones Summary for 2003/2004 Season.
Sources of South Pacific rainfall data.
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