05 September 2014
El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
- Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) remain warmer than normal in the Pacific but are below El Niño thresholds.
- Despite the Southern Oscillation Index being currently negative, the atmosphere has yet to couple to the ocean.
- Chances for El Niño over the September – November 2014 period are about 55%, increasing to about 70% later in the summer.
The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ)
- The SPCZ is expected to be positioned close to normal for the coming three months.
Multi-model Ensemble Tool for Pacific Island (METPI) rainfall and sea surface temperature forecasts
- Normal or below normal rainfall is forecast for the Marquesas, the Society Islands, Tonga, the Tuamotu archipelago, Vanuatu, the Northern Cook Islands, Fiji, New Caledonia, Tokelau, Tuvalu and Wallis & Futuna.
- Normal or above normal rainfall is forecast for the Austral Islands, the Southern Cook Islands and Eastern Kiribati.
- Normal or above normal SSTs are forecast for Western Kiribati and Eastern Kiribati.
