Introduction

El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

• Multiple ENSO indicators show La Niña has re-emerged in theEquatorial Pacific Ocean. Many dynamical and statistical climate models suggest La Nina will continue to develop during late spring, and persist at least through the middle of summer.

Tropical cyclone forecast for 2011 -12 season

• Below average numbers likely, but increased activity in the lateseason near North Queensland and French Polynesia.
• Five to eight named storms are likely for the coming season.

Multi-model Ensemble Tool for Pacific Island (METPI) rainfall and sea surface temperature forecasts

• Below normal rainfall is forecast for Tuvalu, Tokelau, the Tuamotuarchipelago, Western Kiribati and the Northern Cook Islands in the three months ahead.
• Above normal rainfall is expected for Papua New Guinea, NewCaledonia, Vanuatu, Fiji, Tonga, Niue and the Southern Cook Islands.
• Below normal sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are forecast forWestern Kiribati, Eastern Kiribati, the Northern Cook Islands, and the Marquesas, while above normal SSTs are expected for the Austral Islands, Niue and Tonga.