Tropical rainfall and SST outlook: February to April 2010
During February – April 2010, a region of suppressed convection is likely in the southwest Pacific encompassing Niue, Fiji, Tonga and Vanuatu. Below average rainfall is expected for all of those island groups. Near or below normal rainfall is expected for Wallis & Futuna, New Caledonia, the Southern Cook Islands, the Marquesas, and the Solomon Islands. Enhanced convection is likely along the Equator extending from Western to Eastern Kiribati, and also near Tuvalu and the Society Islands, with an expectation of above average rainfall for those islands. Near or above average rainfall is forecast for the Northern Cook Islands, the Tuamotu Archipelago and Tokelau. Near normal rainfall is forecast for Pitcairn Island and the Austral Islands. No clear precipitation guidance is offered for Papua New Guinea or Samoa.
The global models are continuing to show elevated temperatures in the near equatorial Pacific and the northeast part of the Southwest Pacific. A warm pattern is seen in many models for French Polynesia while cold anomalies are projected around Fiji. Above average sea surface temperatures are forecast for Eastern and Western Kiribati. A region of near or above average sea surface temperatures is forecast around Tokelau, Tuvalu, the Northern Cook Islands, and all of French Polynesia. Average or below average SSTs are forecast for Fiji, Niue, Tonga, and Pitcairn Island. Near normal SSTs are forecast for the remainder of the southwest Pacific.
The confidence in the multi-model ensemble forecast skill for this seasonal rainfall outlook is moderate to moderately high. In the past, the average region-wide hit rate for rainfall forecasts issued in February is 63%, 2% higher than the longterm average for all months combined. The SST forecast confidence is mostly high, but the greatest uncertainty is localised around the Marquesas.
Rainfall outlook map for January to Marchl 2010
SST outlook map for February to April 2010
NOTE: Rainfall and sea surface termperature estimates for Pacific Islands for the next three months are given in the tables above. The tercile probabilities (e.g., 20:30:50) are derived from the averages of several global climate models. They correspond to the odds of the observed rainfall or sea surface temperatures being in the lowest one third of the distribution, the middle one third, or the highest one third of the distribution. For the long term average, it is equally likely (33% chance) that conditions in any of the three terciles will occur. *If conditions are climatology, we expect an equal chance of the rainfall being in any tercile.