The NINO3.4 Index (in the central Pacific) for the month of September (to the 29th) was equal to the 1981-2010 climatological value (i.e. zero anomaly). Above average warmth continued in the NINO4 region (west-central Pacific) with a monthly anomaly of +0.65˚C.
October – December 2019 temperatures have about equal chances of being near average (45% chance) or below average (40% chance) for the west and north of the South Island. All other regions of New Zealand will most likely experience near average temperatures (50% chance).