NIWA produces long-range climate outlooks with information about expected rainfall, air temperatures, air pressure, wind, sea temperatures and more. Depending on clients' needs, timeframes range from sub-seasonal (2 to 6 weeks) to seasonal (3 to 6 months).
Our climate outlooks indicate the likelihood of climate conditions being at, above, or below average for the season as a whole. They are the result of the expert judgment of NIWA’s meteorologists and climate scientists and take into account observations of atmospheric and ocean conditions and output from global and local climate models. Climate outlooks are not weather forecasts as it is not possible to forecast precise weather conditions months in advance.
Forecasting climate - the odds on getting it right (PDF 76.7KB)
Public seasonal climate outlooks
Each month NIWA publishes a Seasonal Climate Outlook for the next three months. These give an overview of air temperature, rainfall, soil moisture and river flow predictions for the coming season across Aotearoa. These may not provide enough detail for your specific business needs, but will give you an indication of the type of information available.
Customised long-range climate outlooks
Many clients choose to receive a customised climate outlook with detailed information on specific locations or regions and climate variables of interest.
These outlooks can provide insights into the expected climatic conditions over the upcoming weeks to months (for instance, whether it will be warmer/cooler/wetter/drier than average). They can help you understand whether a certain type of weather pattern is more likely or not. This is valuable for long-term planning, particularly when it comes to likelihood of hazards such as drought, ex-tropical cyclones, flooding and extreme heat.
NIWA draws on decades of experience in this space, our ever-improving climate and weather forecasting models, and the ability to identify years in the past that have similarities with the present (this is called analogue forecasting).
Delivery of long-range climate outlooks
Just like our short-range weather forecasts, our long-range climate forecasts can be supplied in the way that suits you best, including as datasets, graphics, videos, documents, emails or even text messages.
The following video gives an overview of how NIWA's long-range climate forecasts can help you make operational decisions to help your business succeed.
This next video goes into more detail about our customised seasonal climate forecasts and breaks down how you can interpret and use these.
