An overview of the present climate in the tropical South Pacific Islands, with an outlook for the coming months, to assist in dissemination of climate information in the Pacific region.
Number 36 – 8 September 2003
August’s climate: A large area of suppressed convection occurred from the Solomon Islands southward to include Vanuatu and New Caledonia, and eastward to encompass Western Kiribati, Rawaki, and Tokelau. Many sites in these areas recorded less than 25% of their normal August rainfall, especially Vanuatu and northern areas of New Caledonia where it was extremely dry and previous low rainfall records were broken. Enhanced convection and above normal rainfall occurred from southern Tonga to southern French Polynesia, and east to Pitcairn Island. Air temperatures were well below average in parts of Fiji and New Caledonia and well above average in the Society Islands of French Polynesia.
ENSO and sea surface temperatures (SST): The equatorial Pacific remains essentially in a neutral state. The August Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) was about -0.4. Sea surface temperature anomalies were generally positive throughout the western equatorial Pacific. The trade winds were weaker than average over the western Pacific but near average strength in the east.
Forecast validation: How well are we doing with our predictions?
Three month outlook: Enhanced convection is expected over Papua New-Guinea, as well as the Austral Islands, resulting in normal or above normal rainfall in those areas. Normal or below normal rainfall is more likely for Western and Eastern Kiribati, Tuvalu, Fiji, and the Tuamotu and Marquesas Islands. Near normal rainfall is expected elsewhere in the region.
Feature article: Information on drought.
Sources of South Pacific rainfall data.
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