An overview of the present climate in the tropical South Pacific Islands, with an outlook for the coming months, to assist in dissemination of climate information in the Pacific region.
Number 27 – 10 December 2002
November’s Climate: The moderate El Niño episode is continuing to affect Southwest Pacific rainfall patterns, with enhanced convection and above average rainfall over much of Kiribati, and contrasting areas of suppressed convection and well below average rainfall from Queensland across to New Caledonia. The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) remained near its average location about and west of the date line, but resumed its activity further east, extending from the region north of Fiji across to the Southern Cook Islands. A large region of suppressed convection and well below average rainfall also persisted from Tokelau to French Polynesia, including the Northern Cook Islands.
ENSO and sea surface temperatures (SST): The El Niño event in the tropical Pacific is expected to last throughout the southern hemisphere summer 2002/03, but should remain weaker than the 1997/98 event and wane as conditions ease back to neutral during autumn 2003. The November Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) was -0.8, with a three month mean of -0.9, indicating steady atmospheric conditions, with respect to the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO).
Forecast validation: How well are we doing with our predictions?
Three month outlook: The El Niño related convection and tendency towards above average rainfall is expected to persist in equatorial countries, including Tuvalu and Tokelau. Rainfall should tend below average from the Solomon Islands, southeast to the Southern Cook Islands.
Feature Article: El Niño Impacts in the Pacific, now and for the Southern Hemisphere Summer.
Sources of South Pacific rainfall data
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