25 January 2016
El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
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Strong El Niño conditions continued in December 2015.
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Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) anomalies weakened slightly in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific but still exceed +2°C.
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El Niño is certain (100% chance) to continue over the coming season (January – March 2016).
The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ)
- The SPCZ is expected to be positioned north and east of climatology.
Multi-model Ensemble Tool for Pacific Island (METPI) rainfall and sea surface temperature forecasts
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Below normal rainfall is forecast for New Caledonia, the southern Cook Islands, Samoa, southern Vanuatu, Wallis and Futuna, Niue, Tonga, Fiji, northern Vanuatu and the Federated States of Micronesia.
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Above normal rainfall is forecast for eastern Kiribati, western Kiribati, Tuvalu and Tokelau.
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Above normal SSTs are forecast for western Kiribati, eastern Kiribati, the Marquesas and the northern Cook Islands.
