14 March 2014
El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
- The equatorial Pacific remains in a neutral ENSO state.
- Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) remain higher than normal in the central south Pacific.
- International guidance indicates that neutral ENSO conditions are very likely (88 % chance) to persist for the coming three months.
The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ)
- The SPCZ is expected to be positioned slightly south of normal for the coming three months.
Multi-model Ensemble Tool for Pacific Island (METPI) rainfall and sea surface temperature forecasts
- Below normal rainfall is forecast for the Marquesas. Normal or below normal rainfall is forecast for the Northern Cook Islands, Eastern Kiribati, the Society Islands, the Tuamotu archipelago and Tuvalu.
- Near or above normal rainfall is forecast for the Federated States of Micronesia, Western Kiribati, Niue, Fiji and Tonga.
- Near normal SSTs are expected for most of the southwest Pacific.
NIWA
