29 July 2009
An overview of the present climate in the tropical South Pacific Islands, with an outlook for the coming months, to assist in dissemination of climate information in the Pacific region.
Number 106 – July 2009
June’s climate
- The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) was positioned southwest of normal, and contracted toward Papua New Guinea.
- Suppressed convection north of the Equator and near the Solomon Islands.
- Mostly well above normal rainfall for many parts of Fiji.
El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), seasonal rainfall, and sea surface temperature forecasts
- ENSO neutral conditions exist in the tropical Pacific. Many dynamical climate models project a transition to El Niño by early in Austral spring.
- Below normal rainfall is forecast for Tokelau, the Marquesas and the Northern Cook Islands.
- Normal or above normal rainfall is expected for Papua New Guinea, the Solomon Islands, Western Kiribati, Eastern Kiribati, the Southern Cook Islands, and the Austral Islands.
- Above normal SSTs are forecast for Eastern Kiribati. Normal or above normal SSTs are forecast for Papua New Guinea, the Solomon Islands, Western Kiribati, the Northern Cook Islands and the Austral Islands. Near normal SSTs are expected elsewhere in the southwest Pacific.
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