30 March 2009
An overview of the present climate in the tropical South Pacific Islands, with an outlook for the coming months, to assist in dissemination of climate information in the Pacific region.
Number 102 – March 2009
February’s climate
- The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) was displaced southwest of its normal position and was very active.
- Very suppressed convection near Western Kiribati and south of the Equator from Nauru east to northern Cook Islands.
- Normal to well above normal rainfall for many areas in the western region of the South Pacific, with many a new record established in Townsville, Australia.
El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), seasonal rainfall, and sea surface temperature forecasts
- La Niña-like conditions exist in the tropical Pacific. Many climate models project continuation of La Niña through to the end of summer 2009.
- Below normal rainfall is forecast for Tuvalu, Tokelau, and the Northern Cook Islands.
- Above normal rainfall is expected for the Austral Islands, the Southern Cook Islands, Vanuatu, New Caledonia, Tonga, and Papua New Guinea.
- Normal to above normal SSTs are forecast for the southwestern half of the southwest Pacific region. Normal to below normal SSTs are forecast for the northeast half of the southwest Pacific.
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