Departure from normal of the number of Tropical Cyclones occurring later in the season (February-June) in the southwest Pacific, in years with similar SST anomalies and SOI to the present situation, and a weakly coupled El Nino in the prior Austral autumn/spring. The analogue years chosen for the guidance are listed at the top of the table above, and were selected from the 1957-58 to 2008-09 period. Only three analogue seasons were found within the 1969-70 to 2008-09.