Three-month outlook

Tropical rainfall outlook: March to May 2007
Rainfall outlook map for March to May 2007.

Tropical rainfall outlook: March to May 2007

Rainfall outlook map for March to May 2007. (Click for enlargement)

Enhanced convection is expected over Western Kiribati, the Solomon Islands, Vanuatu, Samoa, the Tuamotu Islands, the Society Islands, and Pitcairn Island, where rainfall is expected to be near or above average.

Rainfall is expected to be near or below average over Tuvalu and Marquesas Islands.

Near average rainfall is likely for other countries in our forecast region with no trend forecast for New Caledonia and Fiji.

The forecast model skills are low to moderate during this time of the year.

 
Island group Rainfall outlook Outlook confidence
Western Kiribati 20:40:40 (Near or above average) Moderate
Solomon Islands 15:45:40 (Near or above average) Moderate
Vanuatu 20:40:40 (Near or above average) Moderate
Samoa 20:40:40 (Near or above average) Moderate
Tuamotu Islands 20:40:40 (Near or above average) Moderate
Society Islands 20:40:40 (Near or above average) Moderate
Pitcairn Island 40:40:20 (Near or above average) Moderate
Papua New Guinea 20:45:35 (Near average) Moderate
Eastern Kiribati 35:45:20(Near or above) Low - moderate
Wallis and Futuna 20:45:35 (Near or above) Moderate
Tokelau 35:45:20 (Near average) Low - moderate
Tonga 20:45:35(Near average) Moderate
Niue 35:45:35 (Near average) Moderate
Northern Cook Islands 35:45:20 (Near average) Low - moderate
Southern Cook Islands 20:45:35 (Near average) Moderate
Austral Islands 20:45:35 (Near average) Moderate
New Caledonia 35:35:30 (Climatology) Low – moderate
Fiji 35:35:30 (Climatology) Low – moderate
Tuvalu 40:40:20 (Near or below average) Moderate
Marquesas Islands 40:40:20 (Near or below average) Moderate

NOTE: Rainfall estimates for Pacific Islands for the next three months are given in the table. The tercile probabilities (e.g., 20:30:50) are derived from the interpretation of several global climate models. They correspond to the odds of the observed rainfall being in the lowest (driest) one third of the rainfall distribution, the middle one third, or the highest (wettest) one third of the distribution. On the long-term average, rainfall is equally likely (33% chance) in any tercile.