For May – July 2016, above normal pressure was forecast to the north and northeast of New Zealand. This circulation pattern was likely to be accompanied by anomalous north-westerly wind flow. Actual pressures were lower than normal over and to the southwest of New Zealand, while higher than normal pressure existed to the northeast of the country. This pressure set produced more north-westerly winds than normal, as forecast.
Predicted air temperature: May – July 2016 temperatures were very likely to be above average in all regions of the country.
Outcome: Actual seasonal temperatures were indeed above average for all regions of New Zealand. Well above average temperatures were recorded in eastern parts of both islands.
Predicted rainfall: May – July 2016 rainfall was likely to be above normal in the north of the North Island, likely to be near normal or above normal in the west of both islands and in Nelson-Marlborough, and likely to be in the near normal range in the east of both islands.
Outcome: Actual rainfall was above normal in the west of the South Island, Tasman, Nelson, Manawatu-Whanganui and central Waikato. Below normal rainfall was observed along the coastal fringes of Gisborne, Hawke's Bay, Wellington, Marlborough and northern Canterbury. Rainfall was near normal in the north of the North Island and southern Southland.