Introduction

El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

• The tropical Pacific remains in a neutral ENSO state.
• Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) have warmed up in the central and eastern Pacific during March 2014.
• International climate forecats indicates that neutral ENSO conditions are likely (78 % chance) to persist for April – June 2014. Chances of El Niño increase in the following months.

The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ)

• The SPCZ is expected to be positioned slightly south of normal for the coming three months near and west of the international Dateline .

Multi-model Ensemble Tool for Pacific Island (METPI) rainfall and sea surface temperature forecasts

• Normal or below normal rainfall is forecast for the Northern Cook Islands, Samoa, the Society Islands, Tokelau, the Tuamotu archipelago, Tuvalu and Wallis and Futuna. Below normal rainfall is forecast for the Marquesas.
• Near or above normal rainfall is forecast for the Austral Islands, Eastern Kiribati and Western Kiribati, the Federated States of Micronesia, Niue and the Southern Cook Islands.
• Near or above normal SSTs are forecast for Western Kiribati. Normal SSTs are generally expected elsewhere.