Introduction to Island Climate Update 117 - June 2010

Number 117 - June 2010

El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

• Moderately strong El Niño conditions that existed in the equatorial Pacific earlier in the year are gone. Many dynamical climate models project neutral ENSO conditions for austral winter and development of La Niña by spring.

Tropical cyclone summary

• A total of 10 storms occurred for the southwest Pacific during 2009/10, with 12 reported fatalities and a miniumum of $163M USD in damages.

Multi-model Ensemble Tool for Pacific Island (METPI) rainfall and sea surface temperature forecasts

• Near or below normal rainfall is forecast for the Marquesas, Fiji, Pitcairn Island and Eastern Kiribati.

• Above normal rainfall is expected for Papua New Guinea, the Solomon Islands, and Samoa.

• Near or below normal sea surface temperatures are forecast for Eastern Kiribati.

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