Introduction to Island Climate Update 114 - March 2010

Number 114 - March 2010

El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

• Moderately strong El Niño conditions exist in the equatorial Pacific. Many dynamical climate models project the continuation of El Niño through autumn 2010.

Tropical cyclone guidance

• Tropical cyclone risk is elevated for the Solomon Islands, and for countries to the east of the Date Line, including Niue, Tonga, and the Southern Cook Islands for the remainder of the Tropical cyclone season.

Multi-model Ensemble Tool for Pacific Island (METPI) rainfall and sea surface temperature forecasts

• Below normal rainfall is forecast for Fiji, Vanuatu, Niue, Tonga and the Marquesas.

• Above normal rainfall is expected for Western Kiribati and Eastern Kiribati.

• Above normal SSTs are forecast for Eastern Kiribati and Western Kiribati. Normal or above normal SSTs are forecast for the Northern Cook Islands, Tuvalu, Tokelau, and the Marquesas. SSTs are expected to be near or below normal around Niue, Tonga and Pitcairn Island.

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