The ensemble of global climate models for rainfall that are used in METPI show an area of higher than normal rainfall associated with the SPCZ position.
The green line indicates the average SPCZ position for the forecast period based on the average of eight climate models.
The white vertical bars and ‘whiskers’ indicate the one and two standard deviations between the model projections of the SPCZ position every five degrees of longitude.
The purple shading is proportional to the probability of intense convection developing within the SPCZ.
For August – October 2014, the South Pacific Convergence Zone is forecast to sit close to normal for the time of year. The models indicate a well-defined SPCZ to the west of the International Dateline.
There is consensus between the models that the region of most intensive anomalous convection will occur in the Bismarck archipelago area. The greatest uncertainty for the position forecast is just to the west of the Dateline, and few models indicate the SPCZ will be prominent east of the Dateline.
