A region of suppressed convection was forecast for the southwest Pacific encompassing Tokelau, the Northern Cook Islands, Tonga, Fiji, New Caledonia, and Papua New Guinea. Near to below average rainfall was expected for those areas. Below average rainfall was forecast for the Marquesas.Near normal rainfall was forecast for Niue, Southern Cook Islands, Wallis & Futuna, the Austral Islands and Pitcairn Island. Enhanced convection was expected along the Equator extending from Western to Eastern Kiribati, and also near the Solomon Islands. These regions were expected to receive near or above normal rainfall, with Western Kiribati and the Solomon Islands forecast to receive above normal rainfall. No clear precipitation guidance was offered for Vanuatu, Tuamotu Archipelago, Samoa, and the Society Islands.
The July–September 2009 forecast validation was calculated for 12 island groups (three countries did not report rainfall values; five were forecast as climatology and were unscora¬ble). The global island group ‘hit’ rate was 72%, 8% higher than average for July forecasts, and 11% higher than the aver¬age for all months combined. Rainfall was over projected for the Southern Cook Islands and Society Islands.