Outlook: August-October 2018

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1 (not at all) - 10 (very likely)

August – October 2018 temperatures are forecast to be near average (40% chance) in the North Island. For all regions of the South Island, seasonal temperatures are expected to be above average (40%) or near average (35% chance).

August – October 2018 rainfall totals are forecast to be near normal (40% chance) or below normal (35 – 40% chance) in the north and east of the North Island and the north of the South Island. For the west of the North Island and the west and east of the South Island, near normal rainfall totals for the season as a whole are forecast (45 – 50% chance).

August – October 2018 soil moisture levels and river flows are forecast to be near normal (35 – 40% chance) or below normal (35 – 40% chance) in the north and east of the North Island. Below normal soil moisture levels and river flows are forecast in the east of the South Island (50 – 55% chance). In the west of the North Island and the north and west of the South Island, soil moisture levels and river flows are forecast to be in the near normal (35% chance) or above normal (35 – 40% chance) range.

 

Graphical representation of the regional probabilities, Seasonal Climate Outlook, August-October.