Forecast validation

Forecast validation

Forecast period: February to April 2004

Enhanced convection with above average or average rainfall was expected over the Solomon Islands and Western Kiribati, with a tendency toward below average rainfall predicted for the Marquesas Islands. The rest of the region was expected to experience near average rainfall.

Rainfall was above average over the Solomon Islands as expected and average or below average in Eastern Kiribati. However, totals were higher than expected in northern and central French Polynesia and Pitcairn Island, and lower than expected in much of the region from the Southern Cook Islands southeast to the Austral Islands of French Polynesia. The overall ‘hit rate’ for the February to April 2004 rainfall outlook was about 40%.