Table 1: The average number of tropical cyclones passing within 5° of the main South Pacific Island groups between February and April. The activity associated with some island groups for the coming season is a subjective assessment, and has been stated to be consistent with the wishes of the national meteorological services involved in generating this regional forecast. In addition, subjective qualification of activity (and associated risk) also recognises the small differences between the actual TC counts for the analogue composites and climatological values, and therefore also indicates how many storms might still be expected for any given island group for the upcoming season.