Climate change is impacting our marine resources, communities and businesses. The impacts of climate change are highly uncertain, posing considerable challenges to our decision-makers. But if we can better understand how climate change has affected marine resources in the past it will allow us to predict with more certainty into the future.
The project
This project is developing a novel modelling approach to better describe past fish abundances in space and time, to then be able to forecast fish abundances in the future under climate change and fishing scenarios.
Our work will provide insights into how fish abundances may change among harvest quota management areas and fishing locations, in response to future climate and fishing changes. Such knowledge supports strategic foresight and operational flexibility for climate-resilient fisheries. Beyond fisheries assessments and management, our work assists other efforts, such as marine spatial planning.
The other institutions and companies involved in our project include Te Ohu Kaimoana, Moana New Zealand, Fisheries New Zealand, the Ministry for the Environment, the Department of Conservation, Victoria University of Wellington, NOAA Fisheries, the Gulf of Maine Research Institute, and the University of California Santa Cruz.
The project team brings together experts in fisheries science, climate change modelling, commercial fisheries (including Māori-owned fishing companies), and resource management. Our modelling, scenarios and forecasts are guided by expert knowledge from Moana New Zealand and Te Ohu Kaimoana and renowned national and overseas scientists. Together our project team uses the models to explore climate change and fishing scenarios that are meaningful to New Zealand commercial fishing companies, and contributes towards making our fisheries climate-resilient. See full list of team members at the bottom of the page.
If you are interested in this project, please get in touch with Arnaud.Gruss below. We aim to provide updates of the project through social media (NIWA LinkedIn and Facebook) and this webpage.
