Retrospective: March-May 2019 Outlook

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For the autumn season, the regional circulation for New Zealand was likely to be influenced by the tropics to the north and the Tasman Sea to the west.  Furthermore, when the tropics become the dominant driver of weather patterns, easterly quarter winds were more likely.  Otherwise, westerly quarter flow anomalies were favoured. Actual pressures were higher than normal over and to the east of the country with a northerly wind flow anomaly.                           

Predicted air temperature: March – May 2019 temperatures were forecast to be above average for all regions of New Zealand.  A particularly warm start was expected for the autumn season.

Outcome: Actual temperatures were above average for virtually the whole country, particularly in the South Island. Small pockets if near average temperatures occurred in parts of Northland, Auckland and about Kaikoura.

Predicted rainfall: March – May 2019 rainfall totals were forecast to be normal or below normal for all of the North Island. Normal or above normal rainfall was expected for the west of the South Island with near normal rainfall elsewhere.

Outcome: Actual rainfall was below normal for the north and east of the North island. Rainfall was above normal about Taranaki and the West Coast and near normal elsewhere.