Outlook: March-May 2018

March – May 2018 temperatures are forecast to be above average for all regions of New Zealand with high confidence (60 to 70% chance). As autumn progresses however, frosts may occur from time to time in cooler locations.

For March – May 2018, rainfall totals are forecast to be above normal in the North Island and in the north of the South Island (45 to 50% chance) and about equally likely to be near normal (35 to 40% chance) or above normal (35 to 40% chance) in the west and east of the South Island.

March – May 2018 soil moisture levels and river flows are forecast to be above normal (45 to 55% chance) in the north and west of the North Island and the north and east of the South Island. In the east of the North Island and the west of the South Island, soil moisture levels and river flows for the March – May 2018 period are about equally likely to be near normal (35 to 40% chance) or above normal (35 to 40% chance).

Graphical representation of the regional probabilities, Seasonal Climate Outlook, March-May.