Our seasonal climate outlooks provide air temperature, rainfall, soil moisture and river flow predictions for the coming season.
Watch Chris Brandolino, NIWA Principal Scientist - Forecasting, explain how our seasonal climate outlooks can help your business succeed and how our seasonal climate outlooks can be interpreted.
Related information:
- Sea Surface Temperature Update
- Forecasting climate (PDF)
- More on probabilities (PDF)
- Southern Annular Mode
- El Niño Southern Oscillation
- What's average in my region?
Explore our Drought Forecasting Dashboard below, request data via a web form or pop out to full screen
Issues
Seasonal Climate Outlook: April - June 2016
El Niño conditions continued in the Tropical Pacific during March 2016, but the current event has clearly entered its decaying phase.Seasonal Climate Outlook: March - May 2016
Strong El Niño conditions continued in the tropical Pacific during February 2016.Seasonal Climate Outlook: February - April 2016
Strong El Niño conditions continued in the tropical Pacific during January 2016.-
Seasonal Climate Outlook: January - March 2016
Strong El Niño conditions continued to dominate the tropical Pacific during December 2015. -
Seasonal Climate Outlook: December 2015 - February 2016
Strong El Niño conditions continue in the Tropical Pacific. -
Seasonal Climate Outlook: November 2015 - January 2016
Atmospheric and oceanic anomalies in the equatorial Pacific reflect strong El Niño conditions. -
Seasonal Climate Outlook: October – December 2015
Strong El Niño conditions were established across the Equatorial Pacific during September 2015. -
Seasonal Climate Outlook: September - November 2015
Strong El Niño conditions are present in the tropical Pacific ocean. -
Seasonal Climate Outlook: August - October 2015
El Niño conditions continued to strengthen during July 2015. -
Seasonal Climate Outlook: July - September 2015
An El Niño event is under way in the tropical Pacific. Sea surface temperatures have continued to warm across many areas of the eastern and central Tropical Pacific. -
Seasonal Climate Outlook: June - August 2015
An El Niño event is now under way in the tropical Pacific. -
Seasonal Climate Outlook: May - July 2015
Warming of the sea surface across the equatorial Pacific Ocean continued in April 2015, building upon the warmer than normal waters observed in previous months. -
Seasonal Climate Outlook: April - June 2015
Sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropical Pacific intensified significantly around the international Dateline during March 2015 and are currently showing a pattern consistent with weak El Niño conditions. -
Seasonal Climate Outlook: March - May 2015
Sea surface temperatures across the equatorial Pacific Ocean continued to reflect conditions between neutral and weak El Niño states during February 2015. Atmospheric patterns were mostly indicative of weak El Niño-like conditions. -
Seasonal Climate Outlook: February - April 2015
Sea surface temperatures across the equatorial Pacific Ocean are borderline between neutral and weak El Niño conditions. -
Seasonal Climate Outlook: January - March 2015
Sea surface temperatures across the equatorial Pacific Ocean remained steady during December 2014 at above conventional El Niño thresholds. -
Seasonal Climate Outlook: December 2014 -February 2015
In November 2014, the equatorial Pacific Ocean warmed significantly, reaching El Niño levels towards the end of the month. -
Seasonal Climate Outlook: November 2014 - January 2015
At the end of October 2014, atmospheric and oceanic indicators in the tropical Pacific Ocean were at borderline El Niño thresholds. -
Seasonal Climate Outlook: October - December 2014
During September 2014, borderline El Niño conditions returned in the Pacific. -
Seasonal Climate Outlook: September - November 2014
The equatorial Pacific Ocean remains ENSO-neutral at the end of August 2014. -
Seasonal Climate Outlook: August - October 2014
The equatorial Pacific Ocean continues to remain ENSO-neutral at the end of July 2014, with atmospheric and oceanic conditions failing to sufficiently couple to initiate an El Niño event -
Seasonal Climate Outlook: July - September 2014
While above normal sea surface temperatures across the Tropical Pacific Ocean have crossed El Niño thresholds in June 2014, most atmospheric indicators (e.g. sea level pressure, convection, trade winds) have remained at neutral levels, indicating that El Niño conditions have not yet become fully established. -
Seasonal Climate Outlook: June - August 2014
During June–August 2014, mean sea level pressures are expected to be lower than normal to the northeast of New Zealand, and weak lower than normal pressures are expected over the country. -
Seasonal Climate Outlook: May - July 2014
May–July temperatures are most likely (50% chance) to be average for the west of the South Island, above average (50% chance) for the east of the North Island, and average or above average (40-45%) for all remaining regions of New Zealand. Cold snaps and frosts can still be expected in some parts of the country as autumn advances into winter.