Outlook: June-August 2016

June – August 2016 temperatures are very likely (65-80% chance) to be above average in all regions of the country. Nevertheless, frosts and cold snaps will occur from time to time in cooler locations.

June – August 2016 rainfall is likely to be above normal (50% chance) in the north and west of the North Island and the west of the South Island. Seasonal rainfall totals are equally likely to be near normal (40% chance) or above normal (40% chance) in the east of the North Island and the north and east of the South Island.

June – August 2016 soil moisture levels and river flows are most likely (45-50% chance) to be in the above normal range in the north and west of the North Island and the west of the South Island and most likely (40% chance) to be in the near normal range in the east of the North Island. In the North of the South Island, soil moisture levels and river flows are about equally likely to be in the near normal range (40% chance) or above normal range (35% chance). Soil moisture levels and river flows are both about equally likely to be in the near normal (40% chance) or below normal (35% chance) range in the east of the South Island.

Graphical representation of the regional probabilities, Seasonal Climate Outlook, June-August 2016.