Analogue guidance summary:
5 - 8 storms expected for the 2011-12 season
One storm is expected to reach category 3 status. While no analogues suggest a Category 4 status storm will develop, the medium term climatology (last 15 years) suggests at least one storm of Category 4 strength is likely.
In two of the four analogue seasons, at least one ex-tropical cyclone to come within 550 km of New Zealand during this time, indicating slightly reduced activity and likelihood of an ex-tropical cyclone interaction despite the expectations of impending La Niña conditions. (Click to enlarge)