Introduction

El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

• The ocean - atmosphere system remains in a neutral ENSO state.
• The eastern Pacific is currently slightly cooler than normal.
• The international consensus indicates that neutral ENSO conditions are likely to persist for the coming three months (September to November 2013).

The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ)

• The SPCZ is forecast to be positioned slightly south of normal for the coming three months

Multi-model Ensemble Tool for Pacific Island (METPI) rainfall and sea surface temperature forecasts

• Normal or below normal rainfall is forecast for Eastern Kiribati and Western Kiribati, the Northern Cook Islands and the Marquesas.
• Near or above normal rainfall is forecast for Fiji, Tonga, Niue, Papua New Guinea, Samoa and the Solomon Islands.
• Near or above average SST is forecast for Fiji and Tonga.