Three-month outlook

Tropical rainfall outlook: May to July 2007
 
Rainfall outlook map for May to July 2007. (Click for enlargement)
Enhanced convection is likely over the Solomon Islands and the Southern Cook Islands, where rainfall is expected to be above average.
Near or above average rainfall is expected from Papua New Guinea southeastwards to the Pitcairn Island, including Wallis and Futuna, Samoa, the Northern Cook Islands, Society Islands, Austral Islands, and Tuamotu Islands.
Suppressed convection is expected over Eastern Kiribati, where rainfall is likely to be below average.

Tropical rainfall outlook: May to July 2007

 

Rainfall outlook map for May to July 2007. (Click for enlargement)

Enhanced convection is likely over the Solomon Islands and the Southern Cook Islands, where rainfall is expected to be above average.

Near or above average rainfall is expected from Papua New Guinea southeastwards to the Pitcairn Island, including Wallis and Futuna, Samoa, the Northern Cook Islands, Society Islands, Austral Islands, and Tuamotu Islands.

Suppressed convection is expected over Eastern Kiribati, where rainfall is likely to be below average. Near or below average rainfall is expected over Western Kiribati, Tuvalu and the Marquesas Islands.

Near average rainfall is likely for the rest of the countries in the region.

The skill of the rainfall forecast models are low to moderate for this time of the year.

Island group Rainfall outlook Outlook confidence
Solomon Islands 30:35:45 (Above average) Moderate
Southern Cook Islands 20:30:50 (Above average) Moderate
Papua New Guinea 15:45:40 (Near or above average) Moderate
Wallis and Futuna 20:40:40 (Near or above average) Moderate
Samoa 20:40:40 (Near or above average) Low – moderate
Northern Cook Islands 20:40:40 (Near or above average) Moderate
Society Islands 20:40:40 (Near or above average) Moderate
Austral Islands 20:40:40 (Near or above average) Moderate
Tuamotu Islands 20:40:40 (Near or above average) Moderate
Pitcairn Island 20:40:40 (Near or above average) Moderate
Vanuatu 20:45:35 (Near average) Moderate
New Caledonia 35:35:30 (Near average) Low – moderate
Tokelau 30:45:35 (Near average) Low – moderate
Fiji 35:35:30 (Near average) Low – moderate
Tonga 30:40:30 (Near average) Low – moderate
Niue 30:40:30 (Near average) Low – moderate
Western Kiribati 40:40:20 (Near or above average) Moderate
Tuvalu 40:40:20 (Near or above average) Moderate
Marquesas Islands 40:40:20 (Near or above average) Moderate
Eastern Kiribati 50:20:30 (Below average) Moderate

NOTE: Rainfall estimates for Pacific Islands for the next three months are given in the table. The tercile probabilities (e.g., 20:30:50) are derived from the interpretation of several global climate models. They correspond to the odds of the observed rainfall being in the lowest (driest) one third of the rainfall distribution, the middle one third, or the highest (wettest) one third of the distribution. On the long-term average, rainfall is equally likely (33% chance) in any tercile.