Island Climate Update 230 - November 2019

ENSO-neutral conditions continued during October 2019, although the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were on the El Niño side of neutral.

ENSO-neutral conditions continued during October 2019, although the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were on the El Niño side of neutral.

November 2019-January 2020 Island Climate Update

The NINO3.4 Index (in the central Pacific) for the month of October (to the 27th) was +0.54˚C, a substantial increase compared to September. Above average warmth continued in the NINO4 region (west-central Pacific) with a monthly anomaly of +0.95˚C. The NINO 1+2 Index was cooler than average, with a monthly anomaly of -0.48˚C.

Upper-oceanic heat content anomalies increased across the tropical Pacific during October, in response to weaker than normal trade winds throughout the month as well as a strongly positive Pacific Meridional Mode (well above average SSTs in the sub-tropical northeast Pacific).

While the ENSO status will most likely remain “neutral” over the next season, the atmosphere may respond in an El Niño Modoki-like (i.e. central Pacific) fashion at times.

According to the consensus from international models, oceanic ENSO-neutral conditions are most likely at 68% chance for the November – January period. For the February – April 2020 period, the probability for neutral conditions is 71%. For May – July 2020, the probability for neutral conditions and El Niño is 57% and 33%, respectively.

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