Tropical cyclone guidance for the 2006–07 season
Weak to moderate El Niño conditions are likely to increase the chances of tropical cyclone activity for several tropical South Pacific countries over coming months.
For the coming tropical cyclone season, from November 2006 – May 2007, we are likely to see above average numbers of tropical cyclones in several parts of the South Pacific near and east of the Date Line. Countries with increased risk over this period include Fiji, Wallis and Futuna, Tonga, Niue, and the southern Cook Islands. Islands west of the Date Line are still likely to experience tropical cyclones, with a normal rate of occurrence.
Tropical sea surface temperatures, which play an important role in the development of tropical cyclones, are presently above average along the equator across the entire Pacific Basin. Climate forecasting organisations in the Pacific are in general agreement that we are seeing the development of a weak to moderate El Niño, although the situation is still evolving. This brings above normal risk of tropical cyclones near and east of the Date Line. There is a good chance that the first tropical cyclone of the coming season in the South Pacific region may occur before the end of November, about a month earlier than is normal in either a neutral or La Niña seasons. About ten tropical cyclones on average can be expected over the entire Southwest Pacific region during a weak El Niño season.
In the Southwest Pacific, tropical cyclones usually develop in the wet season, from November through April, but occasionally occur in May. Peak cyclone occurrence is usually from January to March. In seasons similar to the present, several tropical cyclones usually occur in the region between Vanuatu and Niue with some affecting other areas. About half of the tropical cyclones that develop reach hurricane force with mean wind speeds at least 64 knots (118 km/h).
Southwest Pacific tropical cyclones are grouped into classes ranging from 1 to 5, with 5 being the strongest. On average four per season reach at least class 4 with mean wind speeds of at least 64 knots or 118 km/h, while two usually reach class 5 with mean speeds in excess of 90 knots or 167 km/h. Last season (2005/06) in the South Pacific, Cyclones Larry and Monica were particularly severe, both reaching class 5 in strength. These were especially destructive to coastal and some populated environments in Queensland and the Northern Territory of Australia. Three class 4 tropical cyclones occurred further east, but these missed populated areas.
| Country | Average over all years | Average over Weak ENSO years | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fiji | 2.3 | 2.4 - 2.8 | Increased risk |
| Tonga | 2.0 | 2.3 - 2.7 | Increased risk |
| Niue | 1.8 | 2.2 - 2.6 | Increased risk |
| Wallis and Futuna | 1.8 | 2.1 - 2.6 | Increased risk |
| Southern Cook Islands | 1.6 | 1.8 - 2.2 | Increased risk |
| Samoa | 1.5 | 1.5 - 1.9 | Average - increased risk |
| Tuvalu | 1.1 | 1.1 - 1.5 | Average - increased risk |
| Solomon Islands | 1.4 | 1.2 - 1.6 | Average risk |
| Northern New Zealand | 0.9 | 0.7 - 0.9 | Average risk |
| Northern Cook Islands | 0.8 | 0.7 - 0.9 | Average risk |
| Austral Islands | 0.8 | 0.8 - 1.0 | Average risk |
| Society Islands | 0.8 | 0.6 - 0.8 | Average risk |
| Tokelau | 0.8 | 0.6 - 0.8 | Average risk |
| Papua New Guinea | 0.6 | 0.4 - 0.6 | Average risk |
| Tuamotu Islands | 0.4 | 0.1 - 0.2 | Average risk |
| Pitcairn Island | 0.3 | 0.1 - 0.2 | Average risk |
| Vanuatu | 3.0 | 2.0 - 2.6 | Variable risk - uncertain |
| New Caledonia | 2.7 | 1.8 - 2.4 | Variable risk - uncertain |
| Marquesas Islands | 0.1 | 0.0 - 0.1 | Cyclones unlikely |
| Western Kiribati | 0.0 | 0.0 | Cyclones unlikely |
| Eastern Kiribati | 0.0 | 0.0 | Cyclones unlikely |
For further information: Contact your local Meteorological Service